The Future of Faith in Canada:

Reginald Bibby's e-book, A New Day: The Resilience & Restructuring of Religion in Canada, (60 pp.) Reviewed by Nigel Tomes

Dr. R. Bibby, Sociology Prof. at the Univ. of Lethbridge, Alberta, has been studying religion in Canada for 30+ years. His latest e-book (a free download) updates his previous research analyzing Canadian statistics. Prof. Bibby’s observation are relevant to both the Church in Toronto and evangelical churches in Toronto in general.

The following are some highlights:

1. Religion in Canada not in Terminal Decline

Bibby attacks the conventional wisdom that organized religion in Canada (especially Christianity) is in irreversible decline, headed inexorably towards extinction. Yes, the percentage of Canadians attending religious services weekly has declined. In 1950 60% of Canadians attended weekly worship; by 1975 that number declined to 30% and by 2005 it was only 25%. There’s also been marked growth in Canadians identifying themselves as having “No Religion”—up from under 1% in 1961 to 25% in 2010. Yet, Prof. Bibby says this is only part of the picture. A common error is to simply extrapolate these trends into the future, forecasting 100% “No Religion” in Canada at some future date.

Dr. Bibby reminds us there’s nothing inevitable (or irreversible) about these trends. "It's not ‘written in the stars’ that Canada will become an increasingly secularized country, where religion is relegated to the past," he says. "A significant number of Canadians have dropped out of religion, but many are still religiously committed." Plus, Prof. Bibby adds, there's that ambivalent middle, “undecided people” who could go either way.

“Things are anything but over for religion in Canada,” says Bibby. As recently as 2010 50% of Canadians engaged in “personal religious practices or spiritual activities.” More importantly, “a significant and fairly stable numerical core [of Canadians] continues to value faith and that core is currently being enhanced considerably by immigration.” [Bibby, p. 3]  

2. Decline of Mainline Protestants

The steady decline of mainline Protestant Churches has been a major contributor to the decline of religion in Canada. “Mainline” includes the United Church, Anglican, Presbyterian & Lutheran churches. In 1931 half (48%) of Canadians identified with these churches; by 2009 only 17% did so. Membership in mainline Protestant churches also declined in absolute terms. There were one million United Church members in 1971; by 2010 this number was cut in half. Similarly, the Anglican Church had 1.35 million members in 1961; by 2012 only 500,000. One causal factor behind this decline is that in the 1960s to 1990s mainline Protestants cut back on children’s “Sunday School” & youth programs. Church attendance declined in-step with a decade lag. One lesson seems obvious--good child & youth programs are keys to sustained church growth.

The future of mainline Protestant churches in general doesn’t look bright. "In the case of mainliners, their immigration pipelines have, to a large extent, dried up," Bibby says. "They are having difficulty holding on to their children; and they are not very aggressive about recruiting outsiders.” Nevertheless individual churches needn’t take this prognosis as their inevitable destiny. In my view they ought to return to Christ and the Bible so they have a clear stand and message, and then be faithful to the Spirit’s leading.  

3. Evangelical Churches are growing

The decline of mainline Protestants (and Catholics in Quebec) caught the attention of observers and created the impression that the “secularization” of Canada was leading to the extinction of the Christian faith (& religion in general). However, “flying below the radar,” evangelical churches have been holding their own, and (more recently) prospering. In the 130 years from 1871 to 2001 the share of evangelicals in Canada’s population held steady at 8%. This means evangelical churches were growing in step with population growth. However, since 2000, their growth rate has exceeded population growth, so by 2010 11% of Canadians were evangelical Christians—totaling over 3 million. Evangelical Churches are growing--this fact ought to encourage us!

4. The “Ambivalent Middle, the Religiously Undecided” are Receptive

Canadians are polarizing in terms of religion. At the two ends-- 20% (or so) are committed to faith groups; another 20% (or so) say they have ‘no religion.’ However, in between, Prof Bibby identifies a large group he calls "the ambivalent middle" in terms of religion. These people, he says, “haven’t ‘slammed the door on religious involvement.” In fact, “Many say they’d be open to greater involvement in faith groups -- if they found it to be worthwhile.” Herein lies the challenge to churches today—to offer the gospel and minister Christ to people so that they “find it worthwhile.” Decades ago Canadians attended church services out of a sense of duty and obligation; today it’s a question of being relevant and meeting people's needs. This doesn’t mean abandoning our central message of God’s salvation—we believe that deep within every person, there’s a need only Jesus can satisfy.

5. Importance of Immigration

Between 2001 and 2006, 1.1 million new immigrants arrived in Canada. A majority of recent immigrants (51%) identify themselves as Christian. That’s higher than the Canadian-born. Moreover, new immigrants attend church more often than others—44% attend church at least once-per-month compared to 24% for those born in Canada. Hence immigration helps boost churches and vitalize church-life in Canada.

Conclusion

Prof. Bibby’s take-away is that: “Contrary to widespread thinking, religion is not going away. A solid, durable core of Canadians continues to value faith. Secularization is not …inevitable. Religion will always be with us. The only question is what proportion of the population will embrace faith or reject it?” More specifically, we would say, “faith in Jesus Christ” is not going away; rather it should prosper. The challenge before evangelicals is--can we communicate Jesus Christ’s saving message to 21st century Canadians by our words, works & lives so that they perceive its value and receive it?

Nigel Tomes, Oct. 2, 2012