GLOBAL ATHEISM ON THE RISE--REALLY?

By Nigel Tomes, Toronto, Canada

Often it’s worth closely examining the dramatic claims made by the media. Some media outlets seem to be attracted to claims that atheism is on the rise and that religion in general (and Christianity in particular) is in decline. As Christians and members of the Church in Toronto we ought to “prove all things.” What follows is my attempt to examine some recent claims.

“Atheism is on the rise…international study reveals”

News headlines blare the message—“Atheism is on the rise on a global level, international study reveals…,” the “Number of atheists around the world is rising.” “Religiosity… Declines Worldwide; Atheism on the Rise,” declared the Huffington Post. “The world less religious now than in 2005: Report,” states the Toronto Sun. Thus the media conveyed the results of WIN-Gallup International’s study using its “Global Index of Religion & Atheism.” In 2012 Gallup asked people in 57 countries, "Irrespective of whether you attend a place of worship or not, would you say you are a religious person, not a religious person or a convinced atheist?" Gallup analyzed their answers.

We will focus on the “big picture” results for the globe. Globally Gallup reports that, “59% of respondents think of themselves as religious, 23% as not religious and 13% as convinced atheists.” Moreover, they “found the number of people around the world who claim to be religious dropped 9% since 2005, while atheism rose 3%.” These are the figures behind the headlines.

Gallup: 13% of World’s Population “Convinced Atheists”

Gallup’s global conclusions are striking—they claim that 13% of the world’s 7 billion people are “convinced atheists.” That’s 900 million atheists. Plus, atheists’ share of the world’s population has grown by 3% over the last 7 years—suggesting 200 million people joined the ranks of the world’s atheists. If correct these are dramatic changes. But, how reliable are these figures? How do they stack up against other studies?

Gallup’s Global Figures a “House of Cards”

Looking at the fine print we find that Gallup’s claims are based on tenuous data. There are 150+ countries in the world. Gallup surveyed only 57 of these countries, typically conducting around 1,000 internet, phone or personal interviews. These sample figures were then “scaled up” to reflect each country. Surveyed countries are extrapolated to non-surveyed nations to give global figures.

This method makes small sample results highly significant in some cases. Take China for example. Looking at the small print we discover that Gallup’s figures for China’s 1.35 Billion people rely upon an online Internet survey of only 500 Chinese people! Since almost half of those surveyed identified themselves as “atheist,” Gallup concludes that globally “China has the largest population of atheists (47%).” Since China accounts for almost 20% of the world’s population, this single country accounts for nine percentage points of the “13% convinced atheists,” who inhabit the globe, according Gallup. Put differently, based on Gallup’s figures, 70% of the world’s atheists live in China! Yet this dramatic finding is based on an on-line survey of only 500 Chinese people. Surely such dramatic claims need a stronger basis. 9% of those 500 Chinese surveyed either didn’t respond or replied “I don’t know.” Moreover, we ask, how can an on-line survey be representative of China’s population where less than 40% have Internet access? What about the 50% of China’s people living in rural areas, mostly without Internet access? Such questions highlight the tenuous nature of Gallup’s claims; they are a “house of cards.”

Is Global Atheism Really on the Rise?

The headlines trumpeted Gallup’s claims—“Atheism is on the rise on a global level.” But, is it really? Concerning atheism, Gallup’s twin claims are [1] 13% of the world’s population are “convinced atheists,” and [2] since 2005, “the number of people around the world who claim… atheism rose 3%.” This suggests a rise from 10% atheists in 2005 to 13% in 2012. Yet, looking deeper into Gallup’s report, we find that the number of “convinced atheists” rose from 4% in 2005 to 7% in 2012. Yet this last figure (7%) is almost half the previous claim of 13%. So, what’s going on? Do atheists represent 13% of the world’s population or only 7 %, or (perhaps) even less? Again this shows how “shaky” these figures are. In the “small print” we’re told only 40 countries were polled in both 2005 & 2012, so Gallup’s claim that “atheism rose 3%,” is based on 40 countries, not 57. Obviously dropping 17 countries has a marked effect on the results. Again this suggests that Gallup’s dramatic claims are based on tenuous data; they lack a solid basis.

Global Atheism is NOT on the Rise

The World Christian/Religions Database (WCD) has been collecting data for decades on religious & non-religious affiliation for all the world’s countries. They pool all the relevant survey data from all available sources; hence their data is more reliable than Gallup’s. WCD figures consistently show that globally the number of atheists has been virtually unchanged since 2000. They estimate that in 2000 there were 140 million atheists (2.3% of global population). By 2012 this number had declined slightly to 136.6 million. Since the world’s population grew, atheists’ share declined to under 2% (1.9% to be exact). These WCD data refute claims based on Gallup’s results that the “Number of atheists around the world is rising” and that relatively, “Atheism is on the rise on a global level.” Although “no religion” and atheism may be on the rise in the developed world (like Canada), trends in the “third world” of developing nations are more important (given their large populations) in determining the global share of various religions & non-religions. In fact, on the global level, Christianity in general and evangelical Christians in particular, is growing faster than the world’s population and more rapidly than either atheism or agnosticism. Gallup will need much more survey data and better survey methods in order to overturn these well-established observations.