Religious Attachment Grows in Quebec, Declines in Alberta

By Nigel Tomes, Feb. 2013

Quebec No Longer Canada's Least Religious Province

Amid speculation the next Catholic Pope could come from Quebec, a recent survey found that Canadians’ religious attachment is growing in Quebec, but dropping in Alberta. Quebec-born Catholic Cardinal Marc Ouellet is being touted as the top candidate to replace Pope Benedict XIV as leader of the world’s one billion Catholics. However, Benedict’s surprise resignation and the prospect of a Canadian pontiff, didn’t influence these figures, since the survey was conducted prior to that event. An online survey of 2,200 Canadians was conducted in November 2012 and compared with results two-years earlier, in September 2010.

The Canada-wide poll commissioned by the Association for Canadian Studies [ACS] found the sense of “attachment to religion” among Quebec residents edged upwards in the past two years, while it waned in several other regions— most noticeably in Alberta, Postmedia News recently reported.

Quebec’s Rising Religious Attachment

The poll found 36% of respondents across Canada considered themselves "very" or "somewhat" attached to religion, down slightly from 39% in September 2010. However, in Quebec, the proportion rose by 8-percentage points, from 26% in 2010 to 34% in November 2012. That jump is striking, since it virtually eliminated the historic “Quebec difference” – the long-standing lower religious affiliation viz-a-vi the rest of Canada. As a result, Quebec no longer has the lowest level of religious attachment in the country.

Did “Saint Kateri” give a Boost?

So what explains the rise in religious attitudes in Quebec? Any explanation has to focus on Roman Catholics, since (despite their long-term downward trend) they remain the “major player” in Quebec. Clearly it’s not the possibility of a Canadian pontiff, since that event post-dates the survey. The report suggests it might reflect the recent designation of a first-nations woman as a Catholic saint. ACS director, Jack Jedwab speculated that the October 2012 elevation of Kateri Tekakwitha (1656 – 1680), known as the “Lily of the Mohawks,” to sainthood may have given Catholicism a boost in her native province. In addition he observed that Quebec’s immigrant communities, which exhibit a strong sense of religious attachment, may be pushing the numbers upwards.

Superficial Changes?

These suggestions which focus on superficial factors don’t give much grounds for optimism regarding the spiritual situation of Quebec or the progress of God’s kingdom there. If Quebec’s greater religious attachment reflects the recent veneration of “Saint Kateri,” we can also expect a boost if “our man,” Quebec Cardinal Marc Ouellet, gets the top job in Rome, replacing Benedict XIV. However, that would mean nothing as far as God’s kingdom is concerned. We can only hope and pray that beneath the surface some genuine spiritual stirring in going on.

Rising on the Coasts, Declining in the Centre

The survey found that religious attachment rose in Quebec and the two coasts—the Maritimes and BC, while it declined elsewhere. It showed a 6-percentage point increase in self-professed religiosity in Atlantic Canada, from 33% in 2010 to 39% in 2012. Plus in 2012, 34% of B.C. residents described themselves as very or somewhat religious, up slightly from 31% in 2010. So, religious attachment rose on Canada’s East and West coasts, along with Quebec. Meanwhile religious affiliation fell by 8-percentage points in Ontario, from 46% in 2010 to 38% in 2012. It also declined from 48% to 43% in Manitoba/Saskatchewan and — most strikingly —from 49% to 31% in Alberta.

Regression to the Mean

The net effect of these opposing trends is “regression to the mean,” narrowing and eliminating regional differences. Religious attachment rose in those areas (PQ and BC) which had below-average attachment in the past. Meanwhile, it declined in areas with above-average religious attachment in the past—the Prairies (AB, MN and SK). As a result in 2012 provincial numbers are more closely clustered around the national average of 36% than they were two-years earlier. (Atlantic region is the only exception.) Plus the observed declines in Ontario and in Canada as a whole reflect (perhaps) the slow downward trend in religious affiliation in most developed nations (e.g. Europe & N. America).

Decline in Canada’s “Bible Belt”?

The reported drop in religious attachment in Alberta and the Prairies is of more concern to evangelicals. These areas represent Canada’s “Bible belt,” where evangelical, “born again,” believers make up a significant segment of the religious spectrum. In the evangelical’s heartland the ACS survey found a 6-percentage point decline in religious affiliation (from 48% in 2010 to 43% in 2012) in Manitoba/Sask. and — most dramatically — a staggering 18-percentage point decline (from 49% in 2010 to 31% in 2012) in Alberta. The survey director offered no plausible reason for this last result; he suggested Alberta’s sharp drop was partly a statistical aberration (sampling errors, etc).

Religion’s Decline—Threat or Opportunity?

While the extent of the decline may be exaggerated in Alberta’s case, the overall decline in religious attachment in Canada’s interior (ON to AB) seems firmly established. For those of us living in this area these survey results reflect trends which have been evident for a while—Canada’s increasing secularization and the growing polarization between Canada’s committed Christians and those in the “No religion” and atheist categories.

Looking around the globe and over the past 20 centuries these observations shouldn’t cause alarm or discouragement. We should view this situation, not as a threat, but an opportunity—‘deeper darkness gives greater opportunities for our lights to shine.’ The vast majority of Christians on earth today live in countries where they don’t constitute a majority of the population. Areas where the Christian faith is vibrant and fast-growing are regions where Christians are a distinct (and sometimes persecuted) minority. Moreover early Christian history shows the church is well-able to survive and prosper under such conditions.

Based on reports from:

Randy Boswell, Postmedia News, Feb. 17, 2013

Steve Merti, "Yahoo! News Canada," Feb. 18, 2013, Worldwide Religious News

Ruth Moon, Gleanings, Christianity Today, Feb. 20, 2013