ATHEISM IN DECLINE

By Nigel Tomes

The year just ended saw a rash of news articles predicting religion’s extinction. Headlines declared “Researchers predict the End of Religion” (Forbes), “Physics predicts end of religion” (BBC) and “Canadians losing faith as religion faces extinction” (Montreal Gazette). Glancing at these banners it’s easy to get the impression that atheism (the belief there is no God) and agnosticism (those who “don’t know” if there is a God) are growing by leaps and bounds. It might also seem that the belief in God—a central tenet of the Christian faith—is in terminal decline, heading towards inevitable extinction. However, from a global perspective, nothing could be further from the truth. Globally atheism & agnosticism are in decline; the Christian faith is vibrant & growing at a healthy rate.

The IBMR publishes yearly figures for religions (and non religions) around the globe. Their latest numbers, hot off the press (Jan. 2012) show some interesting trends.

1. Atheism is in Decline

In 1970 atheists (those avowing there is no God) numbered 166 million worldwide; that was almost one-in-twenty—4.5% of the globe’s population. By 2012 atheists’ number is estimated at 137 million. That’s a decline of almost 30 million. Since world population is growing, atheists’ share declined to less than one-in-fifty—under 2% in 2012. Put differently, every 24 hours there are 800 fewer atheists in the world! Atheism is in decline.

2. Agnosticism is in Decline

In 2000 agnostics (those who “don’t know” if there is a God) numbered 666 million, 10.9% of the world’s people. By 2012 agnostic’s number is estimated at 661 million--a decline of 5 million. In relative terms by 2012 agnostics represent less than one tenth (9.4%) of world population. Every 24 hours there are 1,100 less agnostics in the world. Agnostics are also in decline.

Added together these two groups make up a declining share of global population. In 1970 atheists and agnostics accounted for one-in-five (19.2%) of the world’s people. Based on current trends by 2025 they will represent less than one-in-ten (9.7%). Their population share will fall by half in 50+ years.

3. The Christian Faith is Vibrant & Growing

The flip-side of the trends above is that religion in general (and the Christian faith in particular) is growing. Globally, every 24 hours adds 80,000 Christians to the total. Believers preach to their friends & neighbors; Christian parents impart faith to their kids; missionaries bring the message to new tribes. From 1.2 billion in 1970 the number of Christians (of all types) grew to 2 billion in 2000 and now stands at 2.3 billion. The Christian faith is growing faster than world population. In 2000 32.5% of the world’s people were Christian; by 2012 it reached exactly one-third and by 2025 is projected at 34.1%.

Among varieties of Christians it is the committed believers—Bible-believing, blood-washed, born-again, gospel-preaching Christians—who are growing most rapidly. Evangelicals are growing at 2.25% per year, almost double the general population growth rate (1.18%). Moreover it’s Christians outside the mainline (Roman Catholic & Protestant) traditions who exhibit the fastest growth. Christians in “independent” congregations are growing at 2.25% compared to the overall Christian growth rate of 1.3%.

Globally the Christian faith is far from extinct; it’s not heading for extinction. The numbers show that globally it is atheism & agnosticism that are declining—as resistance turns to acceptance and as faith overcomes doubt. The Christian faith is vibrant; it’s growing and spreading world-wide.